Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. I find this piece troubling. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. Historical Statistics. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Drop file here. !! It responded with an unprecedented wave of . Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. Jacqui Lambie!! Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. War is inevitable. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. particularly June Bullivant. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Agree with all comments . WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. Australia cut. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. From the big bad Toniorists. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. Don't miss a thing! If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. What the hell have we done? The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. What am I missing? "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. Based on history, a war is in the making. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Just buy the bastards and their debt out. There ya go. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. Subscribe to ADM Premium. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. Its TERRORISM people. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? The End of History and the Last Man. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. Taiwanese . Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. 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